Author: Sari Devia Agustina, Mustakim, Okfalisa, Celsa Bella, Muhammad Anang Ramadhan

Publish: 2nd International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics, Teaching, and Research. IOP Conf. Series: Journal of Physics: Conf. Series 1028 (2018).

Abstract:

The demographic bonus becomes a valuable phenomenon for Indonesian. One of the positive effects of this phenomenon is the increase of productive age proclaimed which will be the future of Indonesian economy. The agricultural  sector plays an important role of the overall national economy which is indicated by an increase from year to year. However, the level of nutritional adequacy declined by a few percent each year due to an increase in the number of people  who  are  not  balanced  by  increased  demand  for  food.  In  this  case  the  government  is expected to determine the policy priorities related to Demographic Bonus issues by predicting the future. Computing and data mining technologies play an important role in prediction cases by  drawing  conclusions  based  on  regression  lines.  The  technique  is  called  Support  Vector Regression, which is able to handle some cases of statistical data. Three determinant attributes used in this research are (1) Harvest Area; (2) Number of Harvest Producti on; and (3) Food Productivity,  become  the  main  reference  for  714  data  from  1998-2015  in  34  Provinces  in Indonesia containing 7 types of crops. Three distribution data experiments conducted using K Fold Cross Validation have the highest accuracy on Fold-1 with correlation coefficient value (R) of 92% with the smallest error value at fold -1 with MSE value of 14%. Predicted results show a decline in the number of food production in almost every province in Indonesia. From the  experimental  results,  it  is  known  that  the  biggest  contributor  of  food  products  is  Java Island,  especially  in  East  Java.  Almost  every  kind  of  palawija  plant,  East  Java  plays  an important role in the production of food needed in Indonesia.

Conclusion:

From the results of analysis and  exposure in this study, obtained some conclusions which are the best model obtained for prediction results using RBF carnel on SVR found on the fold-1 with the corelation coefficient  (R)  by  0,9261 are  mean  squared  error  of  0,0014.  East Java,  belong  to  the  province  that plays an important role in the production of food needed in Indonesia because almost every type of food,  East  Java  is  included  in  the  provinces  which  produce  the  largest  amount  of  food  production. Overall  predictions  indicate  a  decrease  in  the  amount  of  production  in  almost  every  province  in Indonesia, even the provinces which contribute as the largest contributor of production in Indonesia also experienced a decrease in production followed by a decrease in harvested area.

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